Federal Penalty calculation

you mean line 16 on page 2 of the 2019 1040?  that's not how line 8 is computed.

it's a little complicated

1) add the following amounts shown on your 2019 tax return.
1040 or 1040-SR
Line 14,
Schedule 2 (Form 1040):Line 4, Line 6 (additional tax on distributions only),Line 7a,* Line 7b, Line 8, don’t include the following write-ins:
•
Uncollected social security and Medicare tax or RRTA tax on tips or group-term life insurance (identified as “UT”);
•
Tax on excess golden parachute payments (identified as “EPP”);
•
Excise tax on insider stock compensation from an expatriated corporation (identified as “ISC”);
•
Look-back interest due under section 167(g) (identified as “8866”), and under section 460(b) (identified as “8697”);
•
Recapture of federal mortgage subsidy (identified as “FMSR”); and
•
Interest accrued on deferred tax under a section 1294 election for the year of termination (see Form 8621, Part VI, line 24, and the Instructions for Form 8621). Also subtract the amount from Form 8621, line 9c, that has been entered in brackets to the left of Form 1040 or 1040-SR, line 16.

from the total of 1)

Subtract the total of the following refundable credits, if any, that you claimed on your 2019 tax return.
•
Earned income credit.
•
Additional child tax credit.
•
Refundable part of the American opportunity credit (Form 8863, line 8).
•
Premium tax credit (Form 8962).
•
Credit for federal tax paid on fuels.
•
Health coverage tax credit.
•
Credit determined under section 1341(a)(5)(B).

that's the tax liability for line 8 except if your 2019 adjusted gross income was over $150,000

then line 8 on the 2210 will be 110% of this net