For next year's return (2023) does the "estimated balance due" equal the total amount of federal taxes I will owe?

maybe. the estimated taxes in one scenario are 100% or 110% (AGI over $150k) of your 2022 taxes less estimated withholding. seldom does this work out so you owe $0 or get a $0 refund.  if your withholding is at least the amount used (which could be zero if you don't have 2022 withholding - Turbotax uses 2022 w/h for 2023 estimated tax purposes unless you supply a different number) and you pay the estimates timely there will not be a penalty for underpaying your tax liability even if you end up owing $1 million for 2023.  other penalties such as late payment or late filing would still apply.