Solved
I have no W-2s, only a single 1099-R with a few hundred dollars of Federal taxes withheld. Turbo Tax says I've paid over $3,000. My est. tax payments are in a different line on the screen (even though the on-screen note says the Income Taxes Paid line includes them - it doesn't)
Income taxes paid is for state and local taxes used for itemized deductions. If you paid state estimated payments or had state withholding from your 1099-R, they should be on that line.
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