Solved
I owe more than $7500 so why wouldn't the credit be applied to my refund?
Does it show up on 1040 line 20 (from Schedule 3 line 6i)? That is a non-refundable credit. It can only reduce the tax to zero and not create a refund. Then you will get back any withholding taken out, estimates paid and any refundable credits.
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